BANGKOK -- For any nation, deciding which country to purchase military weapons from is no insignificant matter. In fact, it can greatly affect national strategy.
Thailand recently unveiled a plan that underscores this and which has stirred concerns in the U.S. and Japan.
In early July, the Royal Thai Navy said it planned to buy three submarines from China for a total of 36 billion baht ($1.02 billion). The Southeast Asian country has been shopping around for submarines in recent years as it has exactly zero such vessels in its fleet.
Initially, the Thai government considered buying subs from U.S. allies, such as South Korea or Germany. So its decision to change tack and buy from China caught the U.S. off guard.
Washington regards Thailand as a strategically important player in Southeast Asia and has therefore been keen to carry out exchanges with the Thai military. That is reflected in the annual Cobra Gold multilateral exercise, in which the two countries have played a leading role since 1982. Cobra Gold now involves more than 20 countries and has become one of the largest military exercises in the region.
Sounding the alarm
A nervous U.S. has warned that purchasing China-made subs would significantly increase the influence of the Chinese military on its Thai counterpart. Critics in Thailand have also questioned the deal. In the face of such doubts, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, who doubles as defense minister, indicated on July 15 that the government was putting the decision temporarily on hold. That does not mean, however, that Bangkok has canceled the plan.
There has, in fact, been a certain amount of cooperation between the Thai and Chinese militaries. The Thai military has traditionally poured more resources into the army, which is why it is has been rushing to bolster its underdeveloped navy. That includes buying six warships from China in the 1990s.
But purchasing submarines is a different matter. The U.S. regards the vessels as valuable leverage against China. A former senior U.S. government official said submarines, not aircraft carriers or other vessels that can easily succumb to missile attacks, will play a greater role in U.S. strategy toward China. "Submarine strength will significantly impact the balance of military power between the U.S. and China in Asia," the official said.
If Thailand procures subs from China, the countries' military relationship could go far beyond short-term cooperation.
Japanese Defense Ministry official noted that submarine deals tend to lead to deeper military ties between the buyer and seller. "The buyer will receive instructions for several years about the technology and know-how needed to operate the submarines, as well as receive hands-on training," the official said. "Moreover, the buyer needs to ask for cooperation from the producer in parts replacement and collection, as well as maintenance."
Expanding its options
Why, then, is Thailand poised to buy Chinese submarines despite being fully aware that doing so would upset the U.S.?
Kavi Chongkittavorn, senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, offers some explanations.
"Thailand needs to expand its naval capability because it has huge natural resources in its EEZ (exclusive economic zone)," Chongkittavorn said. "In 2011, Thailand was set to buy German submarines, but the deal was suspended after a leadership change in Thailand. One of the reasons it decided to buy Chinese submarines is that China offered a very favorable price compared with European countries."
Chongkittavorn added: "The Thai-U.S. relationship has cooled since the military coup, which limits Thailand's options. That doesn't mean Thailand will shift toward China, but it will try to gain a freer hand by cooperating more closely with China while maintaining its traditional security partnership with the U.S."
Washington condemned Thailand's 2014 military coup and has since imposed sanctions on the country. The strained relationship with the U.S. has the Thai military looking to China for weapons and military technology. Beijing sees this as a prime opportunity to strengthen its ties with Bangkok.
According to U.S. media reports, the U.S. military has refrained from commenting on the situation for fear that openly criticizing the Thai military could backfire.
Japan is directly impacted by these events. Over the years, the Japanese government has built up its ties with Thailand mainly through economic cooperation. A stronger Thai relationship with China would weaken Tokyo's influence in the Southeast Asian country, an integral member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
A submarine deal between Bangkok and Beijing would likely further shift the already changing power dynamics in the region.
